How Weak Is Housing? Has It Bottomed?

I believe that a picture is worth 1,000 words.

MBA mortgage applications slipped 2.8% in the week ending September 21, following three straight weeks of increases. The decline was led by purchase applications which tumbled 7.3% on the week - the largest weekly decline since January 19 when they fell 8.4%. This is just another indication of potentially very weak home sales in September. Refinancing applications continued to pour in, rising 3.3%, as ARM resets continue to loom. Indeed, refinancing now makes up 46.4% of total loans, which is up from 36.2% just two months ago. The problem we see is just how few of these applications are actually being underwritten, with lending standards so tight. Lending rates picked up in the latest week, with the 30-year fixed rising nine bps to 6.38% and the 15-year ticking up seven bps to 6.06%.
Today's mortgage application data is no exception.

The disparity between different parts of the country is remarkable.