Sunday, March 2, 2008

Interest Rates - If only we knew where they were going...

For the week ending Jan. 3, Freddie Mac reported that the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.07%. By the week ending Jan. 24, the average rate dropped to 5.48% -- nearly a four-year low for the mortgage.

But rates reversed course, and for the week ending Feb. 28, the 30-year averaged 6.24% -- the highest it has been since November.

This comes after months of stability, with rates inching up or down week to week. So what's with all the recent volatility? Ask people who follow the rates and you'll get a variety of answers as to why rates have gone back up: inflation worries, weakness in the U.S. dollar, a reaction to the economic stimulus package. But many agree that issues being worked out in the credit markets will probably cause long-term mortgage rates to be somewhat volatile in months to come.

The experts who commented this week were basically split on whether rates would go up or down in the week ahead. Surprise, Surprise...

"This market is psychotic," as quoted by the president of Mortgage Grader. "In spite of a dwindling economy, rates have climbed back to 6%, which is where rates were before Mr. Bernanke took action 30 days ago. Stagflation should become part of everyone's vocabulary."

It takes a good crystal ball to know how mortgage rates will fare in the weeks ahead. But there's a good chance that this roller coaster of a rate ride isn't yet at a full and complete stop.

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